Paving the way to sustainable global solutions

By Johan Pauw, Managing Director, SAEON Tweet

South Africans are becoming increasingly aware of their dependence on climate systems and water resources The devastating effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon can wreak havoc on agriculture

With large parts of South Africa experiencing drought caused by the paucity of summer rains, and the resulting restrictions on water usage, South Africans are once again becoming more aware of their dependence on climate systems and water resources in general.

Coupled with the slow growth of the national economy and rising interest rates, the future certainly looks gloomy.

The question is whether our seasonal rains are arriving late on account of natural variability of Earth systems as influenced by El Niño, or whether the drought is caused by human behaviour resulting in climatic change?

Addressing environmental threats

Ironically, while locally affected people in the streets and rural areas of South Africa are contemplating this question, the future of our climate is being debated at the UN-FCCC COP 21 in Paris, a world far apart from the vulnerable subsistence households of Africa. Nevertheless, there is a dramatic increase in the urgency of finding sustainable solutions to ominous climatic threats, to address not only the environmental threats of Africa, but also the environmental threats of the global economy.

Much of the COP 21 deliberations depend on comprehensive Earth system models which should be taken very seriously but can only be validated over decades of monitoring and evaluation. However, it is possible that by that time things could have changed so much that new models will have to be developed. It is for this reason that long-term environmental observation systems, such as SAEON, are globally required.

Tracking climate change and its impacts

Indeed, observation systems are important not only to track climatic change, but also the impact on ecosystems and livelihoods. Moreover, there is great synergy between modelling and in situ observations because models are based on and refined by the results of in situ observations. Systems ecologists, on the other hand, are able to use models for their heuristic value by using different input values to simulate different scenarios.

Much of the COP 21 deliberations depend on comprehensive Earth system models which can only be validated over decades of monitoring and evaluation

Earth and ecosystem modellers have become indispensable in modern times and are influencing the global economy in a big way. Since we have very few of those modellers in South Africa, SAEON is making a slow but deliberate start to grow our own capacity, and hence the sprinkling of articles on systems modelling which have been appearing in SAEON eNews in recent times.